It’s no secret that President Trump loves to play hardball, especially when it comes to trade deals. But in his latest showdown with Canada and Mexico, it seems he might have blinked first.

Just hours before hefty 25% tariffs were set to kick in, Trump announced a 30-day pause. He framed it as a win, claiming Canada and Mexico had caved to his demands. But a closer look tells a different story.

The White House did have a few reasons to celebrate. Mexico agreed to send 10,000 troops to its northern border, and Canada committed $1.3 billion for border security and named a new “fentanyl czar.” But here’s the kicker: many of these actions weren’t entirely new. Mexico had deployed troops before, and Canada had proposed similar border measures months earlier.

Meanwhile, the economic risks of a trade war were too big to ignore. Grocery prices could have surged, and the auto industry—which relies heavily on cross-border production—might have faced chaos. Analysts warned that new car prices could jump by $3,000. By backing off, Trump may have dodged a short-term economic crisis.

But the long-term fallout could be trickier. Trump’s aggressive stance has strained relationships with two of America’s closest allies. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau described the situation as “offensive,” and even some Americans living near the border are worried about lasting damage.

Trump’s approach has also raised eyebrows internationally. His threats and unpredictable moves have left many questioning whether he’s more focused on claiming victories than securing meaningful deals.

So, did Trump win this round? It’s debatable. While he avoided immediate economic fallout, the trade war’s pause may have cost him some credibility—and some of America’s closest friendships.

As Canadians and Mexicans breathe a sigh of relief, one thing is clear: Trump’s trade tactics are anything but predictable. And for now, the world is watching to see what he’ll do next.