President Donald Trump has often joked that America doesn’t need products from Canada—whether it’s oil, cars, or even lumber. “We have all the trees you need,” he recently said. But experts argue that relying solely on U.S. timber could make the housing affordability crisis even worse.

While the U.S. is home to around 300 billion trees, it lacks the industrial capacity to meet the growing demand for softwood lumber. This type of wood, sourced from pine, spruce, and other conifers, is essential for building homes. Framing, roofs, and siding often rely on it.

Trump’s new 25% tariff on Canadian lumber imports could push home prices even higher. Add existing countervailing and anti-dumping duties, and the total tax on Canadian lumber could exceed 39%. Canada supplies about 30% of the softwood lumber used in the U.S., and cutting off this supply could strain the market further.

The housing affordability crisis has deepened in recent years due to hurricanes, wildfires, and rising material costs. Tariffs on lumber and other building materials could add $3 billion to $4 billion to construction expenses, experts say.

Expanding domestic lumber production isn’t a quick fix. Opening new sawmills and developing timber access roads require time, regulatory approval, and overcoming labor shortages. The construction industry is already short about 300,000 workers, and sawmills face similar challenges.

Despite these hurdles, some builders remain hopeful. They believe bipartisan efforts to ease regulations could help boost housing production and affordability. However, for now, higher tariffs mean higher costs—and potentially tougher times for homebuyers.