Belarus is gearing up for a presidential election this Sunday, and the outcome seems all but certain. President Aleksandr Lukashenko, who has held the reins since 1994, is on track for his seventh term. Known for his close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Lukashenko has recently made gestures toward the West, but his domestic strategy remains firmly in place.

This election is shaping up to be far smoother than the contentious 2020 vote, which sparked massive protests and a harsh government crackdown. Back then, Lukashenko faced actual competition. This time, he’s cleared the field. Opposition figures are either behind bars or living in exile, and the few state-approved candidates on the ballot have spent their campaigns lavishing praise on him.

Experts describe the election as a “farcical facade,” with no real alternatives to Lukashenko’s rule. Control over the media and government institutions ensures his victory is a foregone conclusion. So confident is he that he’s barely campaigned, instead showcasing his wood-chopping skills with a new Belarusian-made ax.

Two decades after being labeled “Europe’s last true dictatorship,” Lukashenko seems more determined than ever to cement his authority. With Russia’s backing and opposition voices silenced, his grip on Belarus remains unshaken.