Punxsutawney Phil, the world’s most famous groundhog, emerged from his cozy home early this morning and made his annual weather prediction. Spoiler alert: he saw his shadow, signaling six more weeks of winter. But before you grab an extra blanket, let’s talk about how reliable Phil really is.

Every February 2, crowds gather at Gobbler’s Knob in Pennsylvania to witness this quirky tradition. According to folklore, if Phil spots his shadow, winter will linger. If not, spring will arrive early. This year, Phil’s shadow made an appearance, but his track record suggests we might not want to take his word for it. Since 2005, he’s only been accurate about 35% of the time – about as good as flipping a coin.

Last year, Phil called for an early spring, and he got it right. February 2024 turned out to be the third warmest on record for the Lower 48 states, and March also stayed toasty. But even a broken clock is right twice a day, and Phil’s guesses don’t always line up with reality.

For a more trustworthy forecast, experts recommend turning to meteorologists. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center predicts above-average temperatures for much of the U.S. through February, hinting at an early spring in regions like the South and East. Meanwhile, colder-than-usual conditions are expected in parts of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest.

This winter has already been a wild ride. The eastern U.S. has shivered through some of its chilliest months in decades, with record-breaking cold even reaching the Gulf Coast. On the flip side, the West has enjoyed unusually warm weather, with cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas experiencing some of their mildest winters ever.

Warmer winters aren’t just a trend – they’re becoming the norm as global temperatures rise due to climate change. So, while Phil’s prediction of extended winter might make for a fun headline, the bigger picture tells a different story. Whether you trust the groundhog or not, one thing’s clear: winter as we know it is changing.