Belarusians are heading to the polls in a tightly controlled election that’s almost guaranteed to keep Alexander Lukashenko in power. Lukashenko, Europe’s longest-serving leader, has been at the helm since 1994.

The last election in 2020 was marred by allegations of fraud. Lukashenko claimed a landslide victory with over 80% of the vote, but the opposition insisted that Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was the true winner. Massive protests erupted, leading to a brutal crackdown. This time, Tsikhanouskaya, now living in exile, isn’t calling for street demonstrations. The risks are simply too high.

Lukashenko has left nothing to chance this round. Independent observers are barred from monitoring the vote, and polling stations abroad are closed, leaving millions of Belarusian expats unable to cast their ballots. The president faces only symbolic opposition, with one rival even stating he’s running “alongside” Lukashenko.

Tsikhanouskaya is urging Belarusians to voice their discontent at the ballot box. “We’re asking those forced to take part in this sham election to vote against all candidates,” she wrote on Telegram. Critics, including the European Parliament and the US State Department, have labeled the election a “charade” meant to solidify Lukashenko’s grip on power.

Lukashenko’s survival has hinged on his alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose support has become vital. In return, Lukashenko has allowed Belarus to serve as a staging ground for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and hosted Russian nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile, dissent within Belarus has been ruthlessly crushed. Over 1,200 political prisoners are reportedly being held, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski. Many detainees face harsh conditions that activists describe as “torture.”

At 74, Lukashenko shows no signs of stepping down. “As long as I have health, I will stay with you,” he recently declared. For now, his rule seems set to continue, as Belarusians endure a political system critics say lacks any semblance of fairness.